Real Economic News
I don’t seek out “good” economic news but when it comes my way, I don’t run from it.
How Does Population Impact Recovery?
Population drives an economy and in NC our population, as of 2018, was 10.38 million people. Compare that to the big 3 metros; Chicago 9.9 million, Los Angeles 13.31 million, and New York City 18.8 million. The comparison of an entire State to large metros is apples to oranges by intent. NC came out on top in the study and NONE of the States with the large metros even made an appearance.
ITR Economics Overview of Recovery
The economic news I’m referring to comes from the folks at ITR Economics. For me they aren’t just trustable, they are the epitome of the straight shooter. Mind you, they are forecasting a Depression by 2030 and even though I don’t like that word any more than the next person, their data are pretty sound. But I said good news, didn’t I?
Their November 20th newsletter has some really interesting guidance on how to understand what the recovery from COVID will look in your geography.
ITR looks at 4 different issues (GDP, Revenue, Debt Funding, Population Growth Rate) and says that a State that appears on at least 2 of these lists is positioned for “sooner rather than later recovery”. The race to recovery could be won by North Carolina, and 3 of the 7 states listed are in the SE. Another 3 are typically referred to as Rocky Mountain states and the last one, Idaho, a Northwestern State.
Note that of the top 7 States, only ONE is on a coast! None of the BIG populace States appear on the list. The States that are most viable, or best suited for a rebound are those that are heavily reliant on MANUFACTURING.
Need an example? Tennessee exported $ 31.1 Billion worth of goods around the globe in 2019. $2.6 billion of those dollars were in Med Device and $ 2.2 Billion in automotive. The Nissan Plant in Smyrna, TN is the most productive in North America and the majority of what they build is exported outside the US.
I’ve been a tireless supporter of manufacturing. It’s where I came from and a big part of our recruiting efforts today. I believe unequivocally that if you don’t make stuff you will always be at the whim of those who make it for you. Articles like these that “say it like it is” warm the cockles of my heart.
Here’s the article:
The Economic Recovery Outlook for Where You Live: Four Things to Know